Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political

This remote, hourly opportunity is designed for an experienced political analyst with deep, state-specific knowledge of U.S. elections and political risk. The role focuses on producing point-in-time political research and forecasts using only information available at a defined evidence cutoff. You will assess polling, electoral dynamics, win probabilities, and market-implied odds while documenting the reasoning behind your conclusions. The position also involves explaining how political events may affect markets and broader political-risk outcomes. In addition, you will review AI-generated analyses and evaluate them against rigorous professional standards. This is a flexible, project-based opportunity for practitioners who have made real-time judgments on live races rather than relying primarily on retrospective analysis.

• Typically 8+ years of direct professional experience in political analysis, forecasting, polling, political risk, or a closely related field, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent expertise.
• Hands-on experience covering current, upcoming, or recent U.S. political races within a specific state or regional electorate.
• Strong on-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, political environment, and relevant electoral dynamics in the state or states covered.
• Relevant backgrounds may include university political science or survey research, state or regional polling, state-level campaign or party analytics, political-risk analysis, decision desks, or race-rating organizations with state-specific coverage.
• Demonstrated experience making live judgments about polling, probabilities, electoral outcomes, or odds rather than relying primarily on retrospective political commentary.
• Strong understanding of polling methodology, electoral data, probabilistic reasoning, and causal event analysis.
• Ability to distinguish evidence available at a given point in time from information that emerged later and to construct analysis without hindsight.
• Strong written communication skills, with the ability to clearly explain analytical reasoning, assumptions, evidence, and causal mechanisms.
• Analytical rigor, intellectual discipline, attention to detail, and ability to work independently on complex research assignments.
• National political forecasting or political-risk experience is welcome when accompanied by deep knowledge of a specific U.S. state.
• Professional fluency in English.
• Profiles focused primarily on international politics, geopolitics, country risk, communications, journalism, or purely theoretical academic research without direct U.S. race experience are not aligned with the role.